Friedrich Nietzsche, Daybreak:  Reflections on Moral Prejudice. Morgenröte: Gedanken über die moralischen Vorurteile (also could be translated as The Dawn).

Written and published in 1881.

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The worth or worthlessness of a recipe—that for baking bread for example—is proved generally speaking by the result expected coming to pass or not provided of course that the directions given have been carefully followed.  The case is different however when we come to deal with moral precepts for here the results cannot be ascertained interpreted and divined.  These precepts indeed are based upon hypotheses of but little scientific value the proof or refutation of which by means of results is impossible:—but in former ages when all science was crude and primitive and when a matter was taken for granted on the smallest evidence then the worth or worthlessness of a moral recipe was determined as we now determine any other precept: by reference to the results.  If the natives of Alaska believe in a command which says: "Thou shalt not throw a bone into the fire or give it to a dog" this will be proved by the warning: "If thou dost thou wilt have no luck when hunting.  " Yet in one sense or another it almost invariably happens that one has "no luck when hunting.  " It is no easy matter to refute the worth of the precept in this way the more so as it is the community and not the individual which is regarded as the bearer of the punishment; and again some occurrence is almost certain to happen which seems to prove the rule.  
 

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